Comment: Data on 3G may cause delay

After two years of whistling in the dark, the 3G phone people have not only accepted that they may have a problem, they've come up with a solution to it. At least, Lucent thinks it has.

The competition, as far as 3G phone networks is concerned, will come from Internet Protocol links over wireless LANs. When I first offered this observation, three years ago, it was ignored, but it's pretty much received wisdom now.

So the guys I met at Lucent reasoned: "We've been assuming that if people can't buy 3G phones, there's no point in building 3G networks. But actually, the purpose of 3G networks is to provide faster mobile Internet access. So suppose we build 3G cards that fit into computers?"

Notebooks exist. PDAs exist. People in enterprises have them; what they can't do, is provide access for these things outside the office. Optimists note that dozens and dozens of people will set up free WiFi access points - and indeed, many people are doing this. But not necessarily where you or I may want to use one.

So the ultimate irony, perhaps, is that Lucent is testing a 3G WLAN in Spain, without any telephony content whatever. Software detects if there's a WLAN signal, and if there isn't it switches seamlessly over to the Lucent network. And that way, if and when people start making 3G handsets, the network will be in place.

Except, I have this sneaking suspicion that some carriers will try to use this to get out of their expensive licence deals with the government, in the UK at least. "We aren't doing voice, so we can't be expected to pay so much."

It won't work, of course. But it could hold up the deployment of 3G yet again. Now, wouldn't that be ironic, if Lucent's plan to end delay added a new reason for it?

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