The mobile computer has long been expected to evolve into the new book, the dominant medium for reading, though paper will not be supplanted altogether. Fast wireless network links have brought the prospect closer, alongside technologies like Dab, with its potential for multimedia broadcasting.
Mobiles, like books, will come in all sizes. My guess - contested by many in the industry - is that the palmtop will supplant the mobile phone (especially the Smartphone) as the most-used pocket device. For heavy use, people will turn to something the size of a sub-notebook.
This assumes that data input moves beyond the keyboard, a direction in which Microsoft has made a major, if not definitive, move with the pen interface on the Tablet PC. A better pointer to the future may be the Tablet PC's superficially less interesting poor relation, the smart display.
Both devices are pen-driven tablets and use Windows XP, but the smart display is simply acting as a remote terminal for a desktop PC. It sends keystrokes (translated from pen strokes) to the PC over a Wifi link for processing, and then the PC returns screen updates. This needs surprisingly little bandwidth - not so long ago people were doing something similar over 28K modem links. Corporates have used the setup for years, only the displays were called Windows terminals.
Microsoft decided the time had come for the idea to hit a wider market. Flat-panels were beginning to replace CRTs, and these could be given enough processing power at little extra cost to allow users to lift a display from its cradle and carry on working away from the desk. A hardware spec was sent to manufacturers, and Microsoft tweaked Windows CE to run it.
There are snags: you need to be within wireless range of an XP PC, first-generation models are far too expensive, and Microsoft has severely limited what you can do with them. Also, you want a big display on your desk and a small one on your lap, which rather negates the selling point.
I've been trying Viewsonic's 10in Airpanel V110, which is around the right size for off-desk use. So what makes it so exciting?
First, it gives you desktop computing power with much reduced battery drain. You can save more power by switching on and off without disrupting the remote processing (though the resume function is not quite instant) and so the effective battery life can be well over the nominal four hours - and it runs cool. It could be slightly smaller and lighter but it gives you an idea of the size, battery life and power of a near-future 'tablet'.
Second, it draws resources from the network. Future mobiles will have far more onboard resources, but they will also make comprehensive use of the intelligent environment. They might, for instance, save battery power by off-loading processing - probably without you being aware of the fact. Or you might point your mobile at your hotel wall and summon Photoshop to view your snaps. In the US, the V110 is sold with a TV remote, which is the start of a control system that could be used to summon video, music, and other entertainment. This is getting to look like an embryonic universal interface.
What is most appealing about the smart display is that it is a tabla rasa, a blank slate on which to design a machine from scratch, while retaining backwards compatibility. It is more mode than machine, because virtually any computer can be made to act as one. It lets you go off at a tangent from the classic PC hardware and software and yet still run Windows if you wish.
There is much to decide. What software to run? What should run on board, and what should be left to the network? What ports to have? What wireless links? What physical controls? What interface? It is a designer's dream. Whether any will realise it is another matter.
Stephen Yeo, director of marketing at Wyse, which has been making Windows terminals for years, is sceptical. 'If you had a Linux-based machine, say, it would always be behind because Microsoft would simply introduce new features to stay ahead,' he said.
Yet in the long run, Microsoft could draw revenues from the use of networked software. In the short term it seems nervous to give the smart display too much rope. You can't use the PC and the display at the same time, and you get PDA-class script recognition instead of the excellent system on the Tablet PC.
Input remains the single biggest problem for all these mobiles. No one has cracked it and no single system is likely to: communication with computers is likely to be as complex as it is between humans, using a combination of pen, voice and even expression (see here).
My own humble attempt to use multi-modal input (as the jargon has it) shows the smart display's current limitations.
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| The GN 9210 headset costs £250. As it stands it is set up for telephony and an extra USB gizmo is required for use in speech recognition. A sister model has a shorter mic boom, but the one pictured is better for voice input to a computer. See here for details |
I wanted to use a GNNetcom GN 9210 cordless headset for input to Word using Dragon Naturally Speaking 6 (DNS) speech recognition. The 9210 uses Dect wireless, like a cordless home phone, so it would not interfere with the Wifi link, which in Europe uses a different frequency.
My reasoning was this: the V110's pen is fine for editing text but not for writing entire articles, while DNS works well enough to be useful, though it makes mistakes and is not good for editing. So a combination of the two could be very useful. I first set up the 9210 on my desktop machine. It did not quite produce the accuracy of the DNS-supplied wired mic, but it worked. When I switched to the smart display, the host PC disabled the 9210 input: it simply would not listen to me.
Nancy Nemes, smart displays product manager for Microsoft Europe, could not give a direct explanation of why this was so, but she said: 'We have not implemented everything on the first version of the smart display. And some things we have left for third parties to do.'
Oddly enough, it might be better if Microsoft goes slow on the smart display. Others might move in and explore the possibilities without being swamped by the old ways.
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TV over the radio? It's in the picture The mobile is developing into a medium in it own right, love child of DAB broadcasting and ther web. The second part of this report
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