Microsoft prepares for the second billion PCs

Steve Ballmer primes the next generation of users at Stanford Business School

Tom Sanders in Palo Alto, California, vnunet.com 13 May 2005

As computer technology expands to areas that traditionally belonged to consumer electronics manufacturers, the software industry has a big chance for ongoing success, Microsoft chief executive Steve Ballmer said during a speech to students at Stanford Business School.

The number of computers will increase from the current one billion to two billion by 2008, according to Ballmer. "The second billion PCs are going to be quite different from the first billion," he said.

As users store information on a multitude of devices, the need for effective search technology will become paramount.

"Everything is going digital. All the information we want is there; it's just very difficult to organise," said Ballmer.

"Search engines have made it a little bit easier to navigate the ocean of information, but we've only scratched the surface.

"When we look back five years from now, people will be mind blown at how much easier it is to manage and find the information of the world."

Ballmer went on to suggest that Google, the current leader in search query market share, might not be around in five years' time.

"The hottest company of the moment - the one that people really think can do no wrong - may just be a one-hit wonder. What counts is sustained innovation over time," he explained.

Ballmer extolled the virtues of Microsoft's MSN Search engine, as well as features in Longhorn, the upcoming version of Windows, that let users organise their documents in a more intuitive way.

Another area of innovation will be in unified communications, Ballmer predicted, particularly around voice over IP.

"People talk about VoIP like it's a strategy to reduce long distance phone charges, but it's a way to let you more intelligently manage your communications," he said.

Ballmer, who received his college education at Harvard, spoke at Stanford Business School as part of its View from the Top series.

He started studying for an MBA at Stanford, but left after just over a year to join Microsoft. Bill Gates hired his former college buddy in 1980 as the company's first business manager.

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