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IDF: Moore gives his law 10-15 years
Physics will catch up with semiconductor shrinkage, says Intel co-founder
Tom Sanders at Intel Developer Forum in San Francisco, vnunet.com20 Sep 2007
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Chip researchers will hit fundamental physical limits in the next 10 to 15
years that will prevent them from further shrinking chip sizes,
Intel
co-founder Gordon Moore predicted at the
Intel
Developer Forum.
Moore is best known for a theory published in 1965, predicting that
transistor sizes will decrease by 50 per cent every 18 to 24 months.
As a result, chip speeds will double or prices will be cut in half. The
theory has become known as
Moore's
Law.
"In another decade, decade and half, we will hit something that is
fundamental," Moore said when asked if there would be an end to his 'law'.
But he also pointed out that there have always been fundamental barriers that
prevent chip technologies from further advancing.
"There really are some fundamental limits, but it has been amazing to me how
the technologies have been able to keep pushing those out," he said.
"As long as I can remember, the fundamental limits are two, three generations
out. So far we have been able to get around them."
Intel has been pushing the development of
45nm
processors, for example. Current 65nm chips use gate materials that are only
five molecules thick. Any further decrease would have caused a drastic increase
in power leakage.
But the chip giant started to use hafnium to build smaller, more efficient
transistors.
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